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Clinical Vs. Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence, by Paul E. Meehl
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- Sales Rank: #2718464 in Books
- Published on: 1954
- Ingredients: Example Ingredients
- Number of items: 1
- Binding: Hardcover
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Statistical Algorithms - More Accurate and Faster
By Loyd Eskildson
Author Meehl was professor of psychology at the University of Minnesota, and also taught psychiatry, philosophy, neurology, and law. His publications have been cited over 25,000 times. The book is an expansion of lectures given 1947-50 at the Universities of Chicago, Iowa, and Wisconsin, as well as a lecture series to staff and trainees at the V.A. Mental Hygiene Clinic at Ft. Snelling, Minn.This book was first rejected by several publishers, then published in 1954 by the University of Minnesota Press as a special consideration for the then Chair of the Psychology Department. It then went through seven printings and sold 13,200 copies. Author Meehl also has extensive clinical experience - nearly half a century.
For this book Meehl evaluated 20 research studies that involved both statistical and human predictions. He found statistics superior 11 times, and a tie 8 time - only once did clinical assessment prove superior. In a follow-up published in 1965, Meehl found 33 statistical wins, 17 ties, and again only one nod to human judgment.
Meehl's conclusion that clinicians were not very good at predicting people's behavior (eg. predicting the prognosis of a mental disorder or future recurrences) enraged many. Instead, he preferred to analyze the information gained from personality tests, psychiatric interviews and other sources using mathematical formulas. He showed that the subjective confidence people have in their judgment is not a good indication of their accuracy.
Meehl implemented this in rarely showing up at case conferences - believing the intellectual level so low they were boring. He saw many intelligent, educated, sane, rational persons undergo intellectual deterioration - believing 'all evidence is equally good,' and everybody in the room has something to contribute. As a result, a casual anecdote about one's senile uncle as remembered from childhood is given the same group interest and intellectual respect accorded to the citation of a high-quality experiment or field-actuarial study. Nobody would defend this in a seminar on research methods, but somehow it is tolerated in psychiatric case conferences.
Another observation - gold and garbage are both rewarded. Consequently the educational function is prevented from getting off the ground. A corollary is that everyone is right, or at least, nobody is wrong.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Timothy M.
thank you loved it
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